Insurance Insights · Retirement Planning · Published August 9, 2026
Preserving wealth, choice, and independence before a diagnosis makes the decision for you.
Most successful families spend decades building wealth. They diversify their investments. They minimize their taxes. They prepare wills and trusts and review their portfolios regularly.
Yet one of the largest financial risks they may ever face rarely appears on the agenda until it becomes unavoidable: the possibility of needing long-term care. It is, ironically, the risk most capable of erasing years of careful planning.
The risk is not what most families insure
Life insurance protects against dying prematurely. Long-term care insurance protects against the opposite — living a long life while needing help with the activities of daily living because of Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, a major stroke, or the frailty that can accompany age.
Medical advances continue to extend life expectancy. That is wonderful news. The financial consequence is discussed far less often: many people now live for years with chronic conditions requiring paid care — and that care is purchased one month at a time.
The numbers are sobering
For families planning for retirement security, it is worth seeing these figures together, in today’s dollars — the numbers most families have never run.
About 56 percent of people who reach 65 will develop a care need severe enough to meet the benefit trigger on a long-term care policy. A broader federal measure, which also counts care delivered by unpaid family members, puts the figure near 70 percent. Both are HHS figures; the lower one is the one that matters for insurance planning.
About 22 percent will need care for more than five years — and 26 percent of women. It is the tail, not the average, that does the financial damage.
Cognitive conditions dominate the long claims. Survival after a dementia diagnosis commonly runs four to eight years, and a minority of cases run considerably longer.
$15,178 a month — $182,135 a year — is the California statewide median for a private nursing home room. San Francisco Bay Area costs run above that median.
If both spouses need care at that median, the household cost is $364,272 a year. A ten-year cognitive claim for one spouse is roughly $1.8 million in today’s dollars, before any inflation.
Medicaid and other public programs pay about 69 percent of the national long-term care bill. Families pay 14.4 percent out of pocket. Private insurance — health and long-term care combined — pays 8.7 percent.
Probability, duration, and payer figures: ASPE / U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (2022, revised) and Congressional Research Service (2025), using 2023 National Health Expenditure data. Cost figures: CareScout Cost of Care Survey 2025, California statewide medians, published March 2026.
Replacing $1.8 million after tax could require roughly $3.6 million of pre-tax income. For a family in a combined 50% bracket, that is what self-funding a single prolonged claim actually costs.
For many affluent families, the greatest investment risk is not market volatility. It is writing checks for care, month after month, year after year, from assets intended for something else.
A costly misunderstanding
One of the most common assumptions I encounter is that Medicare will cover long-term care. It does not.
Medicare may cover limited skilled nursing or rehabilitation following a qualifying hospital stay. It generally does not pay for extended custodial care — the assistance with bathing, dressing, eating, and supervision that most families eventually need. That responsibility usually falls to:
It is worth pausing on how well understood this is. In a national poll of adults aged 50 and older, 62 percent believed Medicare pays for a permanent nursing home stay. It does not. People are not refusing to plan; they are planning against a picture of the system that is simply inaccurate.
The most common plan is not a plan
Many successful people tell me they will simply self-insure. Perhaps. But self-insurance means committing your own capital to absorb a liability with no ceiling. Unlike insurance, there is no contractual limit to what you may ultimately have to pay.
A risk can reasonably be carried on your own balance sheet when four things are true: the probability is low, the cost is bounded, the timing is foreseeable, and the worst case can be absorbed without changing the plan. Long-term care satisfies none of the four.
And long-term care is usually framed as an asset question when it behaves as an income question. Consider a couple with $2 million of income-producing capital supporting their retirement. If an extended care event consumes a large share of that capital, the income it was producing falls with it — and the healthy spouse is left with a fraction of the income the retirement was built around, at the point in life when they are least able to rebuild it. The household may have had enough on paper. What it lacked was a structure that maintained the income while the care was paid for.
A prolonged care event does not merely reduce an investment portfolio. It changes retirement plans. It affects the surviving spouse, who may live many years on what is left. It alters inheritances. And it places emotional and financial pressure on adult children who are managing their own careers and families.
The question is not whether you have enough money today. The question is whether that is how you want your wealth spent.
Modern planning has changed
Many people remember traditional long-term care policies: annual premiums, periodic rate increases, and nothing returned if care was never needed. That reputation was earned, and it still shapes the conversation. Today’s designs look very different. Depending on health and objectives, current solutions may provide:
Lifetime benefit designs pay for as long as care is needed, rather than stopping after a fixed number of years.
Home care, assisted living, memory care, hospice, adult day care, and skilled nursing — not a nursing home alone.
A death benefit, generally income-tax-free, paid to the family if the coverage is never used.
Many designs guarantee the premium, the benefit, and the cash surrender value at issue.
One deposit can secure lifetime benefits, with multi-year payment options that matter more when cash flow is tight.
CDs, IRAs, annuities, HSAs, or cash value in an older life policy can often be repositioned to fund the plan.
A single contract can cover both spouses, which is frequently more efficient than two separate plans.
Many designs include a guaranteed surrender value, so the decision is not irreversible if plans change.
In many cases, either the policy pays for care, or the family ultimately receives a death benefit. One point belongs in plain sight rather than in a footnote: on most of these designs, the care benefit is paid by accelerating the death benefit, so care and legacy are funded from the same pool, and every dollar drawn for care reduces what heirs receive.
Why lifetime benefits matter
The benefit period is the single most important design decision in a long-term care plan, and it is the one most often decided by price alone.
You would not accept health insurance that excluded cancer. A benefit period that stops short of the most likely long claim deserves the same scrutiny.
Why timing is the whole game
Long-term care insurance is unusual in one respect: you cannot buy it once you need it. Waiting creates four distinct risks.
Coverage is secured while you are healthy. A diagnosis today can make coverage unavailable tomorrow, at any price.
Premiums rise with age. The same benefit costs measurably more each year the decision is deferred.
Carriers continually reassess products and underwriting. Lifetime benefit options have narrowed before and may narrow again.
Planning early leaves more designs on the table — and usually better economics. Planning late leaves whatever is still open.
Funding without disrupting the plan
Most families do not fund a long-term care plan out of income. They fund it with assets they already hold, often assets that are sitting idle for exactly this purpose.
An existing annuity or a cash-value life insurance policy can often be exchanged directly into a qualified long-term care contract under Section 1035, moving embedded gains across without triggering current income tax. It is one of the most useful and least understood tax provisions available in this area. The permitted directions are specific, however — cash, certificates of deposit, and savings accounts have nothing to do with Section 1035 at all — so the funding source must be matched to the contract chassis before anything is signed.
Business owners have a further question to settle first: the entity structure. Premiums for tax-qualified long-term care coverage are treated differently in a C corporation than in a pass-through entity or for a self-employed individual, where age-based limits apply. Which rules reach you should be determined before a policy is designed, not after it is issued.
The premium may be paid in a single deposit or spread over several years to fit your cash flow rather than the other way around. Repositioning assets can carry tax consequences, so this is a conversation to have with your CPA before, not after.
What an independent review looks at
A second opinion is not only for families starting from nothing. If coverage is already in place, here is what I evaluate:
When should a plan be reviewed? On receipt of any premium increase notice; when the benefit period is under three years or has no inflation protection; when the policy is more than ten years old; after a marriage, divorce, death in the family, or a meaningful change in wealth or obligations; and before any exchange, surrender, or replacement is signed. Sometimes a review confirms that the existing plan is exactly right. That is a useful answer too.
A CPA’s observation
After decades as a CPA and hundreds of insurance policy reviews, one pattern stands out. In my experience, the largest financial losses are rarely caused by making the wrong decision. More often, they result from delaying the right one until the opportunity has disappeared.
Long-term care planning belongs alongside investment management, estate planning, and tax planning — not after a diagnosis, when the planning options have already closed.
I have watched families handle a long care event well, and I have watched families handle it badly, and the difference is rarely the size of the balance sheet. It is whether a decision was made while there was still a decision available to make.
There is one more piece that belongs with the plan, and it costs nothing. Tell your spouse and your adult children what exists, where the documents are kept, and who is to act. A policy no one knows about is not a plan.
Your family deserves a plan, not a crisis
Every family’s situation is different. Some clients prefer traditional long-term care insurance. Others choose asset-based designs. Some use existing retirement assets. Others want guaranteed lifetime benefits with a death benefit if care is never required.
There is no universal solution. And for some households the honest answer is that they should keep carrying the risk themselves. I say so when the numbers say so — my compensation does not vary by carrier, by product, or by whether you buy anything at all. There is, however, one principle that applies to every family.
Planning before a health event provides choices. Planning afterward usually eliminates them. Plan before a diagnosis. Not after.
The purpose of long-term care planning is not simply to pay for care. It is to preserve choices, protect independence, and keep a family’s financial plan intact when life takes an unexpected turn.
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An independent, carrier-neutral second opinion. A one-page illustration and quote can show exactly what coverage would look like for your family, and what it would cost to put in place today. All I need are the dates of birth for the proposed insureds.
Request a Policy ReviewWithbert (Bert) W. Payne, CPA, CGMA, FCA (England & Wales) · CA Insurance License No. 0E90257
(925) 708-6501 · bertltccpas@gmail.com · LTCCPAs.com
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This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, tax, or insurance advice. Figures cited are drawn from the sources noted above and are current as of the date shown. California cost figures are medians and vary by facility, region, and level of care, and Bay Area costs run above the statewide median. Insurance products, benefits, and underwriting standards vary by carrier, state, and individual circumstances. All coverage is medically underwritten, and approval is never assured. Long-term care benefit payments reduce the policy’s death benefit and cash surrender value. Policy benefits are generally income-tax-free, but tax treatment depends on the design of the contract and on your own situation; please consult your CPA and your other advisers regarding your specific circumstances. Guarantees are subject to the issuing carrier’s claims-paying ability. California Insurance License No. 0E90257. This is an advertisement and a solicitation for insurance; a licensed insurance agent will contact you.